The Real Impact of the Mueller Investigation


Rasmussen Tracking Poll. See March 2 and April 4.


The graph above should be truly alarming for both Democrats and the fly-eating Renfield clone known as the mass media. All the pundits on both sides are talking through their hats.

Dems are wrong about the significance of Trump not getting a big bump in the polls after the ‘No New Indictments’ finding of the Mueller Report. They think this is because people still believe that Trump did something nasty and wrong and are just waiting for Congress to pick up the fallen standard and charge the Trump stronghold. Wrong.

Republican pundits think the positive poll impact for Trump will be significant but gradual, as the cobwebs and confusing congressional clutter are slowly swept away. Wrong.

The Rasmussen polling indicates only one thing and does so repeatedly, whether you accept the level at which he pegs Trump support or not. His is the only daily tracking poll, so it’s the best source for observing trends and long-term changes in the approval/disapproval numbers. Here one fact is clear on both the macro and micro levels: the 2 year Mueller Investigation and subsequent Mueller Report have had zero effect on Trump’s approval ratings. The relatively flat lines in the months shown above track very closely with Obama’s. The most interesting flat line is the one between March 2, 2019 and April 4, 2019, the interval (inside the red box) that shows us Trump approval before the anticipated release of the Mueller Report and exactly one month later, after the likely voters had had time to digest the news about No New Indictments. What changed? Nothing.

Trump’s approval on March 2 was 49 percent. Today, on April 4, it is 49 percent. What does that tell us in conjunction with the many long months of flat approval performance before the long, hysterical media buildup to the report findings? It says people don’t care and haven’t cared about the whole Russia Collusion story for a very long time. They haven’t ever really cared about it. It hasn’t changed their views on Trump. If they liked him before, they like him now. If they hated him before, they hate him now. What does this mean? RUSSIA COLLUSION IS NOT A STORY.

Not a story at all. Which means Trump hatred is no longer a story, Democrat rhetoric about their own moral majesty in trying to throw Trump out of office is not only not credible but not even on the radar screen of the people who will be voting for President in 2020. Which also means that these same people place absolutely no value on the reporting of the nation’s press. They have tuned them all out for beating a dead horse while all the real news went uncovered. And since the press is supposed to be this monster game-changing ally of the Democrat Party, this public indifference (or antipathy) to the press also means that Democrats are not likely to be helped by one-sided partisan press promotion of candidates anyone can see are basically a clown show.

So what does matter about the approval/disapproval charting? The big deal is how closely Trump approval tracks with Obama approval, sometimes ahead, sometimes behind, but never that much apart. At this time in his administration, Obama was also just bumping up at the 50 percent line from beneath it, underwater by a nose. He also won re-election quite handily. Trump is therefore on track to do the same thing, and the overall indifference to the press means he’ll be running in much the same circumstances as Obama, half approved/half not, but still a significantly lower risk to vote for on Election Day.

Sorry to break it to you, sports fans. I’ll leave it to you to figure out what it means for all your brilliant political strategies. Just one Tip. Anyone wanting to defeat an incumbent president has to focus on just one objective: being seen as less of a risk in the White House than its current occupant, whose bests and worsts they’ve already witnessed at length. That’s the whole ball game. Go have fun playing it.


UPDATE, 4/8/2019—CONFIRMATIONS OF THIS POST:

To see the astonishing extent of activities Trump supporters have simply ignored without changing their approval levels read this article by Victor Davis Hanson: “All the Progressive Plotters”

To understand how dangerous it is for Democrats to misunderstand voter indifference as tacit support for more plotting against Trump read this assessment by reporter and attorney Adam Mill: “Democrats Will Regret Not Walking Away When They Could”

Both articles are available at the website AmericanGreatness.com.

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